Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E2
0xe2b1…7d2a
culture · 136 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
+$13,330 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,453 · open −$12,775
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39,898
Realized+$24,453
Unrealized−$12,775
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses55 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions24
Markets (closed)112 / 136
History coverage179d
Avg bet$2,970
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 24 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,818
7 days+$9,891
14 days+$14,193
30 days+$13,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 60¢ 36¢ $28,781 $17,507 −$11,273 (-39%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $4,758 $5,274 +$516 (+11%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 38¢ 21¢ $6,968 $3,827 −$3,141 (-45%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 70¢ 99¢ $2,090 $2,958 +$868 (+42%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? No 50¢ 97¢ $1,354 $2,655 +$1,301 (+96%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $1,257 $1,989 +$732 (+58%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 36¢ 54¢ $1,027 $1,541 +$514 (+50%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 89¢ 57¢ $1,785 $1,143 −$642 (-36%)
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No 50¢ 72¢ $484 $687 +$203 (+42%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 44¢ 78¢ $315 $564 +$249 (+79%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $347 $367 +$20 (+6%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $345 $295 −$49 (-14%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $359 $231 −$128 (-36%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $251 $209 −$42 (-17%)
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $263 $200 −$63 (-24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $101 $104 +$3 (+3%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Yes 46¢ 15¢ $284 $93 −$191 (-67%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $142 $88 −$54 (-38%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $175 $62 −$112 (-64%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? No 50¢ 98¢ $20 $40 +$19 (+97%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Yes 35¢ 4¢ $175 $20 −$155 (-89%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 57¢ 95¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $285 $13 −$272 (-95%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $1,071 $12 −$1,058 (-99%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Yes 75¢ 2¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $8,640 +$556 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $1,999 +$1,262 +63%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $27,429 +$2,990 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $17,672 +$1,066 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $5,733 −$1,073 -19%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $5,598 +$4,112 +74%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $183 +$116 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 08 $655 +$14 +2%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 08 $735 +$265 +36%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $7,777 +$163 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 08 $3,154 +$370 +12%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026? Jun 07 $50 +$49 +98%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $3,615 −$148 -4%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 06 $215 −$215 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 05 $100 +$110 +110%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 04 $3,145 −$165 -5%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $602 +$469 +78%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 03 $1,162 −$47 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 03 $22 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $9,027 +$3,400 +38%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $4,343 +$681 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 01 $2,797 −$177 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $1,047 −$59 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 31 $888 +$451 +51%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $21,375 +$3,314 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $3,885 +$2,137 +55%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? May 28 $293 −$292 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 28 $605 −$596 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 27 $3,784 +$1,589 +42%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $2,493 +$625 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 22 $750 +$128 +17%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $7,307 −$6,804 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 21 $2,510 −$767 -31%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 21 $1,476 −$1,296 -88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 20 $1,805 +$258 +14%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $515 +$11 +2%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 May 20 $3,558 −$352 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 20 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $3,679 +$1,236 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 19 $770 −$17 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 18 $1,716 −$85 -5%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 17 $2,387 −$294 -12%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $4,614 +$502 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $646 −$640 -99%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 13 $513 +$252 +49%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $2,102 −$284 -14%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 13 $650 −$19 -3%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House May 13 $8,133 −$1,006 -12%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 30 $7,492 +$7,542 +101%
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office Apr 29 $1,286 −$388 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 24% +$50,060
politics 23% +$7,675
finance 21% −$7,704
other 20% −$40,452
world 10% +$2,929
economics 1% −$443
sports 0% −$388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 35¢ $350 10h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY Yes 50¢ $180 12h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 14h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY Yes 35¢ $175 17h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 27¢ $222 25h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 27¢ $48 25h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $51 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $57 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $62 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $73 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $1 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $312 28h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 40¢ $1 29h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 40¢ $81 29h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 40¢ $161 29h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 29h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 29h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 40¢ $157 29h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 37¢ $26 29h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 37¢ $8 29h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 37¢ $24 29h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 37¢ $6 29h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 76¢ $760 29h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY No 50¢ $20 29h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 29h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 29h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 40¢ $0 29h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? BUY No 40¢ $0 30h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 55¢ $415 30h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+97.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +361.8% +317.8% 92% 67% +3.1%
≤30d 43 +184.9% +157.8% 60% 49% -3.9%
≤90d 92 +62.9% +47.4% 43% 35% -26.3%
all 112 +118.4% +97.6% 49% 40% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +97.6% 40% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +78.7% 35% -14.4%
15% +61.4% 28% -22.7%
20% +45.6% 23% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,898.10 · official $39,961.88 (match) · 3500 history records