Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b3…260e other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$2
sports 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.5% -50.7% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤30d 2 -45.5% -50.7% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤90d 2 -45.5% -50.7% 0% 0% -39.0%
all 2 -45.5% -50.7% 0% 0% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 0% -39.0%
10% -55.4% 0% -44.9%
15% -59.7% 0% -50.2%
20% -63.7% 0% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots Yes 40¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 5+ shots Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Aust BUY 4¢ $3 1h
Michael Olise: 5+ shots SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Michael Olise: 5+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.39 · official $12.37 · 11 history records