Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b5…326d crypto 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-5%) realized −$449 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%229W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$488
other 16% −$38
world 8% +$224
weather 7% +$4
sports 7% −$4
tech 4% −$28
politics 4% −$62
finance 2% −$56
culture 1% −$94
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 50% -27.6%
≤30d 141 -12.0% -20.4% 61% 49% -22.5%
≤90d 400 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 46% -15.4%
all 401 -11.0% -19.4% 57% 46% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -15.6%
10% -27.1% 36% -23.6%
15% -34.2% 26% -31.0%
20% -40.6% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$449
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses229 / 172
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions35
Markets (closed)401 / 436
History coverage145d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 80¢ 100¢ $82 $101 +$20 (+24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 53¢ 90¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+70%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 24? No 56¢ 87¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+55%)
Will XRP reach $1.20 June 22-28? No 64¢ 94¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+46%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 25? No 52¢ 75¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+44%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 53¢ 86¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+65%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 48¢ 60¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? No 66¢ 82¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? No 49¢ 58¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? No 65¢ 70¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? No 67¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 28? No 65¢ 60¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 29? No 64¢ 59¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 49¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+103%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 27? No 65¢ 39¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 25? No 62¢ 26¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$15 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$16 +63%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$17 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 +$10 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 7? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 7? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 4? Jun 05 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $26 +$19 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 June 1-7? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $26 +$24 +94%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Solana reach $120 May 25-31? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 31? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 31? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 1? Jun 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 03 $25 +$2 +7%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 May 25-31? Jun 03 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 2? Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $25 +$7 +26%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 2? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 48¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? BUY No 49¢ $26 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $26 6h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 24? BUY No 56¢ $26 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $26 8h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 25? BUY No 62¢ $26 15h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 29? BUY No 64¢ $26 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29? BUY No 65¢ $26 24h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? BUY No 67¢ $26 29h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 27? BUY No 65¢ $26 29h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 28? BUY No 65¢ $26 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $26 2d
Will XRP reach $1.20 June 22-28? BUY No 64¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 53¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY No 62¢ $26 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 71¢ $25 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 70¢ $26 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 4? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 7? BUY No 46¢ $26 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 8? BUY No 53¢ $26 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 4? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 56¢ $26 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 50¢ $26 21d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 77¢ $25 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.05 · official $691.06 (match) · 976 history records