Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2b5…c594 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,281 (+15%) realized +$1,285 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,944
7 days+$2,593
14 days+$2,562
30 days+$2,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,408
other 39% +$600
crypto 2% +$548
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.5% +1.8% 54% 54% +21.8%
≤30d 30 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +18.3%
≤90d 30 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +18.3%
all 30 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 53% +18.3%
10% -11.3% 53% +7.0%
15% -19.8% 47% -3.4%
20% -27.7% 30% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$157 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$1,285
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage9d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $194 +$548 +282%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,091 +$554 +51%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 20 $102 +$274 +268%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $505 +$230 +46%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$368 +180%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$534 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $214 −$210 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $640 −$386 -60%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $506 +$144 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$217 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $505 +$241 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $559 +$587 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $362 −$358 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$65 +64%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $505 +$233 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $402 −$397 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $400 +$415 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,646 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 26¢ $194 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $788 17h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $31 37h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $505 43h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 27¢ $102 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $214 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $253 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $640 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 31¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $650 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $87 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $745 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $31 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $559 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $362 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.61 · official $55.61 (match) · 57 history records