Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b8…8712 sports 1106 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,461 (-3%) realized −$1,470 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%651W / 453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$428est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$311
7 days−$1,501
14 days−$1,143
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$880
other 10% −$667
crypto 3% −$60
world 0% −$9
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -16.1% -24.1% 43% 42% -22.4%
≤30d 252 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 777 -11.3% -19.7% 55% 49% -14.6%
all 1104 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 53% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 53% -12.8%
10% -22.6% 41% -21.2%
15% -30.1% 27% -28.8%
20% -37.0% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,470
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses651 / 453
Est. fees paid−$428
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1104 / 1106
History coverage157d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ 48¢ $75 $84 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 −$93 -50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 −$11 -18%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $235 −$14 -6%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $164 +$194 +118%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $328 +$237 +72%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $11 −$4 -34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 +$4 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $156 +$170 +109%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $481 −$45 -9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $151 +$50 +33%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $531 −$379 -72%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $500 +$31 +6%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $376 +$123 +33%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $322 +$54 +17%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $623 −$52 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $558 −$232 -42%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $110 −$109 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $88 −$87 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $110 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $282 −$279 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $151 +$131 +87%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $245 −$243 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $337 +$59 +18%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $294 +$123 +42%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $117 +$99 +85%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $57 +$48 +84%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $56 +$92 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 18 $100 −$80 -80%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $84 +$50 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06 Jun 18 $61 +$23 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $86 +$23 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $145 +$35 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $130 +$92 +71%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$28 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $105 +$55 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 −$22 -17%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $216 −$14 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $67 +$74 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$57 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $76 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $53 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $64 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $64 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $134 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $86 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 36¢ $86 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $148 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $358 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $164 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $564 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $7 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 35¢ $7 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 51¢ $11 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $11 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $320 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $326 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Matteo Arnaldi 47¢ $156 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $156 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 69¢ $109 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 34¢ $109 8h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 37¢ $104 9h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 57¢ $29 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.64 · official $82.77 (match) · 2873 history records