Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2b8…6c7a crypto 170 markets active 17h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%85W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$87
14 days−$19
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -23.7% -30.9% 41% 41% -23.3%
≤30d 170 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -10.2%
≤90d 170 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -10.2%
all 170 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 49% -10.2%
10% -21.4% 44% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 38% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses85 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records