Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2ba…e8cc world 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 863d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,967 (-24%) realized −$3,966 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%35W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1,564
other 17% −$1,465
finance 7% −$665
sports 6% +$627
politics 5% −$695
economics 1% −$114
tech 1% −$34
culture 1% −$82
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 43 -29.3% -36.0% 23% 19% -32.7%
all 185 -27.4% -34.3% 19% 16% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 16% -30.4%
10% -40.6% 15% -37.0%
15% -46.3% 14% -43.1%
20% -51.6% 11% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$43 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

863d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$3,966
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 150
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage863d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $139 −$135 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $7 −$7 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $107 +$455 +424%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $94 −$30 -32%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 13 $334 −$12 -4%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 13 $1,175 −$959 -82%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 13 $199 −$80 -40%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $428 +$40 +9%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $20 −$16 -82%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 12 $15 −$4 -28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 11 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $48 −$1 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $21 −$13 -62%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $389 −$152 -39%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $223 −$7 -3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 02 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $66 −$66 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 01 $19 −$5 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 31 $477 −$348 -73%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $146 +$14 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $381 −$62 -16%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $15 −$3 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 24 $10 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Team Aether vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - ESL Challe Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Yokkaichi: Maximus Jones vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Mar 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Yokkaichi: Kaichi Uchida vs Fajing Sun Mar 24 $15 +$3 +21%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $49 +$54 +109%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 24 $37 +$32 +85%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $94 +$30 +32%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $34 +$17 +49%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $21 +$13 +62%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 23 $27 +$18 +66%
Will "Netflix" be said at the Oscars? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Metizport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Mar 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 21 $81 −$78 -96%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $88 −$56 -63%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $23 +$9 +41%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $94 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $85 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 10¢ $26 37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 2¢ $25 37d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $7 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 0¢ $7 37d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $562 40d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 12¢ $20 40d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $87 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $31 51d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $225 66d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 67d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 67d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $37 68d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 68d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $57 68d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 68d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 68d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 68d
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 68d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $11 68d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 68d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 69d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 69d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $72 69d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 69d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.07 · official $91.07 (match) · 1025 history records