Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E2 0xe2bf…d0a6 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$199 (+143%) realized +$183 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$128
crypto 35% −$8
sports 2% +$16
other 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+78.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -46.8% -51.9% 0% 0% -51.9%
≤30d 11 +255.1% +221.3% 36% 36% +300.5%
≤90d 11 +255.1% +221.3% 36% 36% +300.5%
all 25 +97.2% +78.4% 32% 32% +177.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.4% 32% +177.0%
10% +61.3% 28% +150.5%
15% +45.7% 24% +126.3%
20% +31.4% 24% +104.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +343% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +206% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +203% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$3 · ×10.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.16 per $1 lost it wins $5.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage114d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-90%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $5 +$51 +1011%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $8 +$135 +1686%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 24 $3 +$16 +517%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $5 +$12 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 28 $5 +$1 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 20 $2 +$5 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 20 $9 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 0¢ $0 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 6¢ $2 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? BUY No 9¢ $5 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 6¢ $6 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 2¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 21d
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $19 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $17 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 21d
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 106d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? SELL No 6¢ $2 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.66 (match) · 58 history records