Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe2c0…c793 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,671 (+22%) realized +$1,676 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%67W / 29L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$155
14 days−$155
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,951
other 15% +$40
politics 10% −$251
crypto 6% −$17
culture 4% −$169
tech 3% +$90
finance 1% +$12
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +34.3% +21.5% 71% 71% -42.9%
≤30d 18 +47.2% +33.2% 83% 78% -12.3%
≤90d 24 +28.0% +15.8% 75% 71% -6.6%
all 96 +24.2% +12.4% 70% 66% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 66% +10.8%
10% +1.6% 50% +0.2%
15% -8.2% 42% -9.5%
20% -17.2% 33% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$55 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$1,676
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses67 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 100
History coverage198d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 23 $81 +$15 +18%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $70 +$4 +5%
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $31 +$55 +178%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union ad Mar 18 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Trump say "Minnesota" during the State of the Union address? Mar 18 $30 +$22 +72%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 18 $200 +$60 +30%
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $80 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$6 +6%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $90 +$39 +43%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $100 +$47 +47%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $50 +$164 +327%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 02 $30 +$22 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9AM ET Feb 02 $10 +$20 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 30 $30 +$7 +24%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 7AM ET Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 9AM ET Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $50 +$26 +52%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $160 +$126 +79%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $200 +$99 +49%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awar Jan 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Jan 19 $35 +$41 +117%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $640 +$160 +25%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $130 +$51 +39%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $30 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $40 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $10 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 17d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 24d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? BUY No 21¢ $5 24d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY Yes 56¢ $10 24d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 24d
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 95¢ $70 34d
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 34d
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 34d
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 69¢ $30 34d
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 35d
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 35d
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 35d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 35d
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 35d
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 36d
Will Trump say "Minnesota" during the State of the Union address? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 118d
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union ad BUY Yes 83¢ $30 118d
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.65 · official $244.65 (match) · 190 history records