Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2c0…b876 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$116 (-10%) realized +$402 · open −$518
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$369
other 25% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -32.9%
≤30d 3 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -32.9%
≤90d 3 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -32.9%
all 3 -42.3% -47.8% 33% 33% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 33% -32.9%
10% -52.8% 33% -39.3%
15% -57.4% 33% -45.2%
20% -61.5% 33% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$160 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$518
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 12¢ $427 $105 −$322 (-76%)
Panama leading at halftime? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $129 −$127 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $241 +$176 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 −$194 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $433 53m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $98 1h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $129 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $416 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $241 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $199 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.90 · official $104.90 (match) · 7 history records