Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2c2…223a world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$4
politics 25% +$6
other 22% +$3
sports 18% −$20
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 14% -8.0%
≤30d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 65 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 3% -9.4%
all 74 +2.3% -7.5% 32% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -16.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -24.4% 4% -26.3%
20% -31.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage528d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $33 +$4 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $23 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $42 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $1 $0 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $28 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.97 · official $38.18 (match) · 285 history records