Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E2 0xe2c5…b9b6 crypto 556 markets active 5d ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,759 (+8%) realized +$7,770 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%223W / 332L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day162.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$1,509
sports 1% +$476
other 1% −$235
politics 1% +$30
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 29% -19.8%
≤30d 555 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 34% -7.8%
≤90d 555 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 34% -7.8%
all 555 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 34% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 27% -16.6%
15% -38.8% 22% -24.7%
20% -44.8% 18% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$80 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$7,770
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses223 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)555 / 556
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day162.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $52 $41 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1,341 −$1,191 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $149 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $394 −$31 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $265 −$29 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $111 −$30 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $240 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $306 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $184 +$48 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $568 −$268 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$72 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $154 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$64 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $204 +$405 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $434 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1,780 +$294 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $131 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $342 −$318 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $141 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $223 +$77 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $762 +$655 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $579 −$219 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $258 +$42 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $261 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $129 +$71 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $178 +$18 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 5d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 19¢ $60 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 43¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $145 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $219 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $199 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $194 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $120 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $62 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $204 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $75 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $79 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $66 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $84 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $149 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $192 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $171 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $394 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 3500 history records