Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2c6…3947 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,026 (-5%) realized −$706 · open −$320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%21W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$10,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,240
7 days−$896
14 days−$896
30 days−$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,894
crypto 22% −$993
sports 14% +$1,414
world 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -21.5% -29.0% 27% 25% -18.1%
≤30d 60 -21.5% -29.0% 27% 25% -18.1%
≤90d 60 -21.5% -29.0% 27% 25% -18.1%
all 83 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 19% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 19% -20.4%
10% -39.5% 17% -28.0%
15% -45.3% 12% -35.0%
20% -50.7% 10% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$57 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$10,420
Realized−$706
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses21 / 62
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions11
Markets (closed)83 / 94
History coverage221d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2,554 $2,927 +$373 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2,823 $2,266 −$557 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,691 $1,667 −$24 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,499 $1,615 +$116 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,264 $1,001 −$263 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 87¢ 90¢ $399 $409 +$10 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $150 $208 +$58 (+39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $99 $56 −$43 (-43%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $205 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $431 −$273 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $205 −$62 -30%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 17 $201 −$18 -9%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 −$36 -85%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $145 −$96 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $99 −$11 -11%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $90 −$47 -52%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$59 +29%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$38 +194%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$212 +105%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$94 -92%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -83%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -92%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 +$35 +48%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$16 +16%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,933 −$111 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $604 −$124 -21%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$72 -71%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $141 −$75 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $79 −$60 -75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$48 +120%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$67 -67%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? Jun 15 $203 −$61 -30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $550 −$83 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $205 −$9 -4%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $250 −$45 -18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 15-21? Jun 15 $101 +$30 +29%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$35 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $101 +$102 +101%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$21 -74%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$10 -84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $100 +$86 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $132 +$63 +48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $47 +$81 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$23 +23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $226 −$226 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 62¢ $4 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 63¢ $210 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 30m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 30m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $144 30m
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? SELL No 81¢ $183 30m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $35 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $104 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $89 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $73 2h
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 2h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $43 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $119 2h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $205 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 4h
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $83 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $41 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,419.89 · official $10,427.43 (match) · 231 history records