Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2c9…cf8c other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$4
world 27% −$5
politics 18% +$31
economics 8% $0
culture 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -4.8% -13.9% 27% 0% -10.9%
all 64 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 3% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -7.3%
10% -19.2% 3% -16.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -24.3%
20% -34.1% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage430d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $4 −$2 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $32 −$4 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $23 +$31 +137%
Israel military action against Iran before June? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $17 +$6 +32%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 12 $17 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $18 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $18 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $30 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 54¢ $3 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 54¢ $25 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $32 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 33d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 33d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $32 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $32 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records