Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2cf…508f other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 110L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$33
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$17
politics 23% −$79
sports 19% −$19
crypto 9% +$2
world 6% −$5
culture 5% −$4
finance 4% −$3
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 65 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 112 -1.7% -11.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
all 134 -1.5% -10.8% 18% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage103d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $741 −$5 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$2 -4%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $46 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $58 −$2 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $213 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $411 +$2 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $40 −$3 -7%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $277 −$2 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 07 $96 −$3 -3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $43 −$3 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $109 −$3 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $62 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 10h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 10h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $59 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $42 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $62 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.63 · official $59.63 (match) · 488 history records