Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2d0…7bbf sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24,200 (+28%) realized +$20,370 · open +$3,830
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$3,622per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,136
7 days+$17,406
14 days+$19,386
30 days+$19,386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$10,415
other 28% +$17,329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +82.9% +65.5% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 6 +86.6% +68.9% 100% 100% +56.4%
≤90d 14 +25.2% +13.3% 64% 64% +37.3%
all 23 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 61% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 61% +18.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 61% +7.0%
15% -21.3% 52% -3.4%
20% -29.0% 30% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$5,607) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,561 vs −$1,326 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$12,825
Realized+$20,370
Unrealized+$3,830
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage227d
Avg bet$3,622
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 86¢ $8,995 $12,825 +$3,830 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6,003 +$3,136 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5,607 +$3,195 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,949 +$2,848 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,141 +$5,812 +185%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $3,040 +$2,414 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,883 +$1,980 +105%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $500 +$838 +168%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $656 −$651 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 08 $498 +$659 +132%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $1,700 −$1,678 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $923 +$306 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $849 −$833 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 08 $1,000 −$982 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jan 15 $16,587 +$6,210 +37%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jan 15 $6,863 −$6,863 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jan 15 $1,393 +$684 +49%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jan 15 $5,400 +$1,330 +25%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jan 15 $2,801 +$1,016 +36%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jan 15 $11,100 +$5,421 +49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $301 −$301 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Nov 13 $399 −$399 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO3) Nov 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3,643 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5,460 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $10 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $5,993 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $5,607 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 70¢ $6,949 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $82 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1,020 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1,020 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $1,020 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3,040 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,883 11d
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL FULL SENSE 100¢ $1,338 50d
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 37¢ $500 50d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $656 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? SELL Under 100¢ $1,157 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 43¢ $91 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 43¢ $102 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 42¢ $102 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 42¢ $102 50d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 42¢ $102 50d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 16¢ $95 78d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 58¢ $1,700 78d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $923 79d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $49 80d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $100 80d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $100 80d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $100 80d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $100 80d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $100 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,825.00 · official $12,825.00 (match) · 143 history records