Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2da…8ff6 world 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$198 (-8%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate63%90W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$52
14 days−$37
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$178
other 13% +$3
finance 13% −$10
crypto 11% −$13
politics 4% +$7
culture 3% +$4
tech 1% −$15
sports 1% −$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 23% -17.0%
≤30d 89 -6.1% -15.0% 61% 21% -17.9%
≤90d 129 -7.2% -16.0% 62% 19% -17.0%
all 142 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 18% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 18% -16.6%
10% -23.2% 4% -24.6%
15% -30.7% 2% -31.9%
20% -37.5% 1% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses90 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage126d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? No 63¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No 87¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$8 -20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $40 −$9 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $40 −$8 -21%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 14 $38 +$5 +12%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $44 +$6 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $39 +$5 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $40 −$23 -57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $39 −$24 -62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $40 +$7 +16%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $80 −$6 -7%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $41 +$4 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $69 +$3 +5%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$5 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $39 +$7 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$3 +7%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $41 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $9 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $31 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $37 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $9 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 37¢ $17 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $15 6d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $40 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $40 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $39 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $39 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 13d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $41 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records