Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e2…4842 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$146
sports 15% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 38% -33.6%
≤30d 8 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 38% -33.6%
≤90d 8 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 38% -33.6%
all 8 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 38% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 38% -33.6%
10% -7.1% 38% -40.0%
15% -16.1% 25% -45.8%
20% -24.3% 25% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$89 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$25 +118%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $56 +$15 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $219 −$167 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records