Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e3…dc0e sports 64 markets active 16h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$348 (-9%) realized −$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$483
other 12% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 38% -20.5%
≤30d 64 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 38% -20.5%
≤90d 64 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 38% -20.5%
all 64 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 38% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 38% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 27% -28.1%
15% -48.2% 16% -35.1%
20% -53.3% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$31 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $79 +$6 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 +$26 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $79 +$37 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $564 +$203 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $136 −$21 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $72 +$6 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 −$9 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 +$15 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 +$15 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$40 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$22 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 +$10 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $113 +$20 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $106 +$29 +27%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$16 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$25 -44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 +$9 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$23 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 79¢ $85 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $79 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $15 31h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 31h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 31h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $71 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $46 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $21 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 73¢ $767 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $564 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $264 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $78 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 83¢ $78 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $72 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $76 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 31¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records