Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E2 0xe2e8…21cf other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$264 (+6%) realized +$197 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$482
7 days+$1,032
14 days+$1,032
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$528
sports 45% +$888
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.0% +9.4% 75% 75% +35.8%
≤30d 5 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% +9.8%
≤90d 5 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% +9.8%
all 9 -23.2% -30.5% 44% 44% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 44% -3.0%
10% -37.2% 44% -12.3%
15% -43.2% 44% -20.8%
20% -48.8% 22% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$219 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage240d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 79¢ $650 $766 +$116 (+18%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $254 +$218 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $656 +$314 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,100 +$550 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $496 −$487 -98%
Will Italy win? Feb 22 $60 −$60 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 29 $551 −$485 -88%
Lighter Airdrop before January 1? Dec 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $248 +$258 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $656 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $254 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $656 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $218 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $882 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $496 23d
Will Italy win? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 120d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 175d
Lighter Airdrop before January 1? BUY No 49¢ $15 175d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 175d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes 37¢ $31 175d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 175d
No airdrop in 2025? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 175d
No airdrop in 2025? BUY Yes 27¢ $500 175d
Aspinall vs. Gane SELL Gane 49¢ $506 240d
Aspinall vs. Gane BUY Gane 24¢ $248 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $816.60 · official $821.45 (match) · 22 history records