Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e8…797c crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate69%45W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$16
crypto 11% −$5
sports 5% −$41
tech 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 65 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -10.3%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses45 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage560d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
Islanders vs. Lightning Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $5,792 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 21 $31 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 20 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 29d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $22 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 122d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 122d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 149d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 150d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $19 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $34 182d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 212d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 242d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $46 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 302d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 334d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $50 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.17 · official $79.17 (match) · 139 history records