Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e8…46c5 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized −$48 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$290
sports 41% +$59
world 13% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 21% 21% -21.9%
≤30d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 21% 21% -21.9%
≤90d 19 -13.1% -21.4% 21% 21% -21.9%
all 19 -13.1% -21.4% 21% 21% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 21% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 21% -29.3%
15% -35.8% 21% -36.2%
20% -42.1% 21% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$41 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 39¢ 68¢ $120 $210 +$90 (+75%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 36¢ 36¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $184 −$93 -50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $62 −$46 -75%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $122 −$78 -64%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $123 +$108 +88%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 −$47 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $123 +$127 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $124 −$120 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $123 +$68 +56%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $61 −$42 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $122 −$74 -60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $287 −$89 -31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $122 −$4 -3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $122 −$5 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $61 −$2 -3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $62 −$4 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $61 −$3 -5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $62 −$6 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $61 7m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 38¢ $47 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 20¢ $45 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $16 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 25¢ $44 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 39¢ $61 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 39¢ $61 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $62 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $62 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $61 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $61 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $61 5h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $61 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $62 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 23¢ $62 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 10¢ $18 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 9h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $61 9h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $61 9h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $61 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $62 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $62 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $102 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 30¢ $48 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $44 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 22¢ $31 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.95 · official $331.95 (match) · 59 history records