Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2e9…02ba other 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized +$8 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%83W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$26
other 24% −$60
politics 2% −$9
sports 2% +$6
world 2% −$10
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +19.5% +8.2% 52% 40% -9.4%
≤30d 50 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 32% -15.2%
≤90d 136 -4.1% -13.3% 44% 38% -15.4%
all 206 -10.3% -18.8% 40% 34% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 34% -17.9%
10% -26.6% 28% -25.8%
15% -33.7% 23% -32.9%
20% -40.2% 17% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses83 / 123
Open positions11
Markets (closed)206 / 218
History coverage162d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $72 $76 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $77 $51 −$26 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 86¢ $23 $47 +$24 (+109%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$61 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$24 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$9 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$14 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$22 +426%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$16 +314%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 59¢ $19 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.40 · official $231.10 (match) · 514 history records