Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2ea…0e85 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$4
other 37% −$7
politics 4% −$7
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -2.0% -11.3% 15% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -2.0% -11.3% 15% 0% -10.3%
all 32 -10.7% -19.2% 28% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -12.3%
10% -27.0% 0% -20.7%
15% -34.0% 0% -28.3%
20% -40.5% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $1 $0 -8%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $17 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $40 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $1 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $3 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $1 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 12¢ $1 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 12¢ $4 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $46 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $46 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $25 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $25 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $23 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $20 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.93 · official $39.94 (match) · 101 history records