Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2ee…e511 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$149 (+1%) realized +$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%41W / 47L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$21
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$124
other 20% +$10
politics 13% +$4
sports 7% +$10
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 7% -8.2%
≤90d 41 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 7% -8.6%
all 88 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -8.6%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses41 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage480d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $276 $276 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $877 +$4 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $279 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $278 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $312 −$5 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $789 −$22 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $549 +$56 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $171 −$12 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $265 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $315 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $262 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $720 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $743 +$21 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $748 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $337 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $699 −$9 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $157 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $483 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $242 +$4 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $237 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $252 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $170 +$73 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $157 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $874 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $65 $0 -1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $180 −$2 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $46 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $978 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $266 +$4 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 17 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $108 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $168 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $151 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $169 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $137 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $138 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $143 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $136 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $166 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $97 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $278 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $205 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $312 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $283 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $309 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $184 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $24 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $209 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $297 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $129 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $139 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.36 · official $276.36 (match) · 462 history records