Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f3…9531 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-7%) realized −$213 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$84
14 days−$231
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$781
other 38% +$629
world 3% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 37% -13.0%
≤30d 33 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 36% -17.6%
≤90d 33 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 36% -17.6%
all 33 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 36% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 36% -17.6%
10% -22.9% 36% -25.5%
15% -30.3% 36% -32.7%
20% -37.1% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$75 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $52 +$46 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$98 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$130 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$74 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$32 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $113 −$111 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $67 −$66 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$58 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 +$102 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$81 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $305 −$301 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $103 +$150 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$138 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $72 +$110 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$112 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $52 +$312 +596%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $21 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $25 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $48 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $25 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $52 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $78 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $113 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $39 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $89 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $67 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $52 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $56 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $29 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $67 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $82 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $67 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $62 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $305 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes $0 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes $9 5d
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.67 · official $273.67 (match) · 58 history records