Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f3…3c07 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 34% −$7
politics 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 5 -19.7% -27.4% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 5 -19.7% -27.4% 40% 0% -9.0%
all 33 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 3% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 3% -11.8%
10% -27.9% 0% -20.3%
15% -34.8% 0% -28.0%
20% -41.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage466d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $23 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $22 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 05 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $9 $0 -3%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 25 $4 $0 -5%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $2 $0 -8%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $31 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $13 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $23 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $19 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $22 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $9 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $39 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 28d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL No 21¢ $4 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $1 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $3 209d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 209d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL Yes $1 353d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY Yes $0 353d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY Yes $0 353d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY Yes $0 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes $2 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes $0 353d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? BUY No 96¢ $5 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes $0 353d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes $3 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.29 · official $43.48 (match) · 90 history records