Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f6…0323 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$198 (-9%) realized −$213 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%40W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$147
14 days+$147
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$24
crypto 30% −$84
sports 9% −$110
world 1% −$16
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +119.1% +98.2% 100% 100% +98.0%
≤30d 6 +136.0% +113.5% 67% 50% +81.5%
≤90d 92 -6.9% -15.8% 33% 26% -25.4%
all 125 -14.5% -22.6% 32% 27% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 27% -18.4%
10% -30.0% 26% -26.3%
15% -36.8% 26% -33.4%
20% -43.0% 22% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses40 / 85
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage119d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 29¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $83 +$98 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 +$49 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 +$40 +770%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 24 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $86 −$17 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 15 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 +$44 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 15 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $27 +$19 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 14 $15 +$14 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 11 $14 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 11 $6 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $180 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $83 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia BUY Slovakia 15¢ $3 27d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia SELL Slovakia 23¢ $7 27d
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia BUY Slovakia 13¢ $4 27d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 43d
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 59d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 59d
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $28 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $30 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $44 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $69 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $66 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $22 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.39 · official $120.39 (match) · 294 history records