Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E2 0xe2f7…586e crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-3%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%82W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$108
world 12% −$23
other 1% −$7
sports 1% +$16
weather 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.7% -8.8% 65% 29% -11.1%
≤30d 36 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 17% -12.6%
≤90d 36 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 17% -12.6%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 60% 30% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 30% -13.1%
10% -18.6% 23% -21.4%
15% -26.5% 20% -29.0%
20% -33.7% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses82 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage193d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$16 +157%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $23 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 17 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 17 $133 −$22 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 17 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13? Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $13 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records