Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2f8…5696 crypto 454 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,140 (+6%) realized +$4,139 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%271W / 180L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$521
7 days+$588
14 days+$575
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$2,766
sports 6% −$189
other 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 55% +12.7%
≤30d 69 -2.2% -11.6% 54% 48% +12.0%
≤90d 451 -4.9% -13.9% 60% 41% -5.8%
all 451 -4.9% -13.9% 60% 41% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 41% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 37% -14.8%
15% -29.7% 32% -23.1%
20% -36.6% 25% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$136 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4,139
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses271 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)451 / 454
History coverage53d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 0¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$33 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $93 +$47 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$74 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$159 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $49 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $62 +$52 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $120 +$73 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $152 +$119 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $129 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $122 +$213 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $109 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$27 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $72 +$57 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $58 +$39 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $93 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$164 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $1 +$2 +156%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $1 +$1 +119%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 21 $1 +$1 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $24 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $49 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $22 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $29 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $22 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $46 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $2.93 (match) · 2769 history records