Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E2 0xe2fd…c61b crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$299 (+17%) realized +$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$346
crypto 30% −$49
sports 3% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 13% +3.0%
≤30d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 13% +3.0%
≤90d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 13% +3.0%
all 15 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 13% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 13% +3.0%
10% -25.2% 13% -6.9%
15% -32.4% 7% -15.9%
20% -39.1% 7% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$40 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $544 +$132 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $485 +$50 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $162 +$164 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records