Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

E2 0xe2fe…a599 other 4 markets active 4h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$2,605 (-15%) realized −$2,821 · open +$216

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4,280per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$5,216now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+38.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	+53.5%	+38.8%	33%	33%	-29.6%
≤90d	3	+53.5%	+38.8%	33%	33%	-29.6%
all	3	+53.5%	+38.8%	33%	33%	-29.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+38.8%	33%	-29.6%
10% ← realistic here	+25.6%	33%	-36.3%
15%	+13.4%	33%	-42.5%
20%	+2.3%	33%	-48.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7,169 vs −$4,890 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$5,216

Realized−$2,821

Unrealized+$216

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage14d

Avg bet$4,280

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$5,000	$5,216	+$216 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$7,945	−$7,779	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$2,046	−$2,000	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$1,989	+$7,169	+360%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5,141	4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	29¢	$2,020	35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5,925	35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	22¢	$1,023	10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	24¢	$1,023	10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$9,158	14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$1,989	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,215.52 · official $5,215.52 (match) · 7 history records