Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe301…8654 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,498 (-15%) realized −$8,498 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 49L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$627per market
Trades / day142.2pace
Fees−$1,289est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$530
7 days−$5,114
14 days−$7,279
30 days−$7,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$7,528
other 13% +$92
crypto 1% +$16
world 0% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 37% -21.9%
≤30d 92 -20.6% -28.2% 47% 34% -24.5%
≤90d 92 -20.6% -28.2% 47% 34% -24.5%
all 92 -20.6% -28.2% 47% 34% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 34% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 22% -31.8%
15% -41.3% 16% -38.4%
20% -47.1% 12% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$278 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,289
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage13d
Avg bet$627
Trades / day142.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4,583 +$258 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,056 +$796 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $498 +$274 +55%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,904 +$296 +16%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,838 +$277 +15%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $249 +$50 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $320 −$89 -28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $270 −$269 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $967 +$186 +19%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,214 +$600 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,213 +$157 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $753 −$751 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,109 −$229 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,143 −$1,298 -61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,720 −$240 -14%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $133 +$47 +35%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$23 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $947 +$534 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 +$2 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $687 −$251 -37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $42 +$3 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,392 +$14 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $511 −$192 -38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 +$141 +94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $289 −$281 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,411 −$292 -21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,391 −$74 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $403 +$153 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $639 +$250 +39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $885 −$869 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $503 +$24 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,273 −$1,714 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $582 +$430 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 +$169 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $525 +$82 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $815 −$466 -57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $326 +$130 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $560 −$337 -60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $347 +$16 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $331 −$237 -72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $464 +$276 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $69 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $4 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $40 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $190 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $821 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $140 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $400 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $147 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $13 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $250 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $45 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $100 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $12 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $63 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $13 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1927 history records