Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe306…d9dd crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$8
other 15% +$2
world 15% +$1
tech 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.0% +2.2% 92% 58% +10.0%
≤30d 12 +13.0% +2.2% 92% 58% +10.0%
≤90d 16 +7.4% -2.8% 88% 50% +8.6%
all 17 +7.6% -2.7% 88% 47% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 47% +8.5%
10% -12.0% 35% -1.9%
15% -20.5% 24% -11.4%
20% -28.3% 18% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.18 per $1 lost it wins $5.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
ChatGPT Outage by March 15? Mar 19 $2 +$1 +52%
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15? Mar 19 $1 $0 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 7h
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $7 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 97d
Iran leadership change by March 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 97d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 97d
ChatGPT Outage by March 15? BUY No 66¢ $2 97d
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 97d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records