Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe307…da09 weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$223 (-6%) realized +$56 · open −$279
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip
Net edge-98%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%1W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day133.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$1,542
other 4% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-98.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -88.0%
≤30d 209 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -88.0%
≤90d 209 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -88.0%
all 209 -98.0% -98.2% 0% 0% -88.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -98.2% 0% -88.0%
10% ← realistic here -98.4% 0% -89.1%
15% -98.6% 0% -90.2%
20% -98.7% 0% -91.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -101% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -98% · $-wt -101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$279
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses1 / 208
Open positions13
Markets (closed)209 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day133.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June 25? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on June 25? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 22? Jun 25 $29 −$36 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22? Jun 25 $7 −$17 -262%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$14 -397%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 22? Jun 25 $7 −$14 -199%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 22? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22? Jun 25 $11 −$15 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 22? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $12 −$15 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on June 22? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 22? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on June 2 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? Jun 25 $17 −$18 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 22? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 22? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22? Jun 25 $10 −$14 -138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 84¢ $209 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.11 (match) · 667 history records