Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe308…309c world 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 1160d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$810 (-9%) realized −$714 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%78W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$68
14 days+$151
30 days+$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$243
other 22% −$632
crypto 20% −$900
politics 14% +$314
tech 12% +$43
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +33.9% +21.1% 45% 40% -0.4%
≤30d 98 +30.2% +17.8% 58% 53% +11.0%
≤90d 166 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 37% -40.3%
all 178 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 39% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 39% -19.3%
10% -16.5% 35% -27.0%
15% -24.5% 32% -34.0%
20% -31.9% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1160d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$714
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 100
Open positions39
Markets (closed)178 / 218
History coverage1160d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 38¢ 88¢ $43 $99 +$56 (+131%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 79¢ $26 $54 +$29 (+112%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 52¢ 26¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? No 35¢ 32¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-8%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? No 15¢ 13¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 23¢ 10¢ $70 $30 −$40 (-57%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 44¢ 48¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 39¢ 42¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 14¢ 7¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-48%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? Yes 46¢ 59¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 17¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by June 30? No 94¢ 79¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $54 +$36 +66%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Jun 19 $16 −$14 -87%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 19 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$16 -22%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $46 −$19 -41%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 19 $20 +$13 +64%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 19 $24 +$20 +83%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $53 −$1 -3%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 18 $57 +$57 +100%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -35%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $71 +$26 +36%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$6 +17%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$92 +919%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $70 −$44 -64%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $112 +$63 +57%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $109 +$58 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$35 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$21 +70%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $56 +$67 +120%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 10 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 +$18 +231%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +200%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $22 +$11 +50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$20 +152%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $90 1h
Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? SELL No 40¢ $21 6h
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 13¢ $21 9h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 17¢ $31 12h
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 15¢ $45 17h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17h
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 18h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 18h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 18h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 13¢ $20 18h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 32¢ $19 18h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 19h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 19h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 27¢ $27 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 77¢ $33 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $44 19h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $35 24h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 80¢ $1 35h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 80¢ $107 35h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 39h
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 40h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.97 · official $823.98 (match) · 766 history records