Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe30c…775a crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 38% -25.4%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 38% -25.4%
all 13 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 38% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 38% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 31% -32.6%
15% -25.9% 31% -39.1%
20% -33.1% 31% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$17 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$72 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$19 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records