Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe30c…9499 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,747 (+59%) realized +$4,747 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,021
7 days+$3,535
14 days+$5,550
30 days+$5,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$4,064
sports 23% +$1,487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.7% +1.1% 50% 50% +72.0%
≤30d 10 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 50% +53.5%
≤90d 10 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 50% +53.5%
all 10 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 50% +53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 50% +53.5%
10% -14.4% 50% +38.8%
15% -22.7% 50% +25.4%
20% -30.3% 50% +13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,274 vs −$164 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.77 per $1 lost it wins $7.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 27 $1,021 +$2,309 +226%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $840 +$965 +115%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $494 +$347 +70%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $811 +$670 +83%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $154 −$149 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,978 +$2,078 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,805 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $840 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $494 10h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $306 10h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $306 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,330 6d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $811 6d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 13¢ $1 6d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 14¢ $154 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $64 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,978 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records