Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe30e…4eed sports 1056 markets active 0h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,950 (-13%) realized −$1,927 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%246W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,413
crypto 4% −$223
other 2% −$18
tech 1% −$124
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +54.8% +40.1% 50% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 40 +10.1% -0.4% 35% 35% -14.0%
≤90d 207 +10.7% +0.1% 28% 28% -16.6%
all 1049 -11.6% -20.0% 23% 23% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 23% -26.4%
10% -27.6% 22% -33.4%
15% -34.6% 21% -39.9%
20% -41.0% 21% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,927
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses246 / 803
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1049 / 1056
History coverage297d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 22¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $16 +$16 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $15 +$50 +323%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $34 −$33 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $10 +$18 +175%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $9 +$2 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 +$7 +330%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$6 +304%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 +$7 +130%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 −$9 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 +$6 +54%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 +$12 +250%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $5 +$10 +200%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 +$9 +50%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $10 +$43 +418%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $31 +$45 +145%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $5 +$26 +500%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5 −$4 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 25 $25 −$24 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $28 −$24 -85%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $26 +$2 +7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $10 $0 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $15 +$14 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $18 −$18 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $39 +$36 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 22¢ $6 21m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 11¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 14¢ $10 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $32 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 2¢ $2 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 13¢ $10 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 11¢ $5 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 69¢ $65 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 17¢ $10 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 14¢ $10 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 21¢ $5 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 11¢ $10 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $23 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $10 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $28 20h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever BUY Los Angeles Sparks 4¢ $5 20h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 20¢ $10 20h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 5¢ $10 20h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 3¢ $5 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 4¢ $1 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 8¢ $10 22h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 7¢ $5 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 96¢ $11 22h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $5 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 23h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $8 23h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 25¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 2040 history records