Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe30e…4ca5 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$913 (+3%) realized +$913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 73L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$1,655
sports 45% −$2,723
other 2% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 38% -3.3%
≤30d 26 -8.2% -17.0% 46% 42% +0.4%
≤90d 96 -21.1% -28.7% 38% 34% -14.6%
all 122 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 37% -13.5%
10% -29.7% 34% -21.7%
15% -36.5% 34% -29.3%
20% -42.8% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$144 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage104d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $209 +$144 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $109 +$235 +216%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $102 +$7 +7%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $262 −$259 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $152 +$131 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$102 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $395 +$30 +8%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $152 +$84 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $417 +$907 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $212 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $314 +$282 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$222 +109%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $434 +$43 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $203 +$222 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $140 +$276 +197%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 13 $210 +$301 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 13 $1,142 +$474 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 13 $1,548 +$1,201 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 13 $3,118 +$170 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 13 $414 +$379 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 13 $1,041 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $1,034 +$117 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 13 $211 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 13 $1,448 +$71 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 13 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 13 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 13 $311 +$167 +54%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $353 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 31¢ $109 15h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $109 15h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 57¢ $262 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $154 2d
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 61¢ $152 2d
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva BUY JiaYi Wang 53¢ $152 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $155 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $412 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $140 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 90¢ $236 3d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 57¢ $152 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.59 · official $149.59 (match) · 268 history records