Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe314…fa2c other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%45W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$70
14 days−$78
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$81
sports 9% −$7
crypto 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -26.0% -33.0% 42% 42% -25.1%
≤30d 45 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 44% -25.5%
≤90d 88 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 47% -14.9%
all 88 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 47% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 47% -14.9%
10% -27.1% 42% -23.1%
15% -34.2% 35% -30.5%
20% -40.6% 23% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage78d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 58¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +37%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $62 −$18 -30%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 +$24 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$6 -23%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 +$7 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$20 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $22 +$16 +71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $14 +$9 +63%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $42 −$31 -74%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $24 +$18 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 44¢ $44 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $62 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $11 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $6 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $28 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 53¢ $14 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $38 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 57¢ $10 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 57¢ $12 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $6.96 (match) · 229 history records