Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe316…bcf9 weather 809 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$442 (+1%) realized +$471 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%789W / 6L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$62
14 days+$5
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% +$168
other 22% +$141
sports 20% −$146
politics 10% +$89
world 7% +$63
finance 4% +$39
economics 2% +$7
crypto 1% +$9
culture 1% +$7
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 346 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 795 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 795 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$56 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized+$471
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses789 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)795 / 809
History coverage80d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Belgium 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) Cabo Verde 96¢ 97¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 96¢ $96 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 99¢ 70¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $97 +$2 +2%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 21 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$3 +4%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $138 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $96 +$1 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $127 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 +$1 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $137 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $68 +$3 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $140 +$1 +1%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $97 +$1 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $141 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $139 +$1 +1%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $138 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian C Jun 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $140 $0 +0%
Spread: Türkiye (-5.5) Jun 20 $105 $0 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$3 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $95 +$2 +2%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $137 +$1 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $139 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $294 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $93 7m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $3 7m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 11m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 96¢ $83 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $0 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 28m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 30m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 32m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $96 34m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 34m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 36m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2 38m
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY Belgium 100¢ $138 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $96 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $138 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $137 5h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $137 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $89 6h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 93¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $35 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $69 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,207.28 · official $1,207.28 (match) · 2284 history records