Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe31f…bde6 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+0%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,641per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$140
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×1009.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10092.46 per $1 lost it wins $10092.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage148d
Avg bet$2,641
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 04 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 20 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $5,471 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $24,139 +$48 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $27,472 +$81 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $2,026 +$4 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 04 $127 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $126 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $126 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 37d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 41d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $92 44d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 59d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 60d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $27 64d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $44 66d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $35 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $165 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $165 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $165 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $476 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $2,216 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,651 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $4,179 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $4,990 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $4,990 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $3,625 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $404 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $429 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $532 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $3,947 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,030 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $252 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.18 · official $97.18 (match) · 76 history records