Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe31f…f872 politics 36 markets active 6d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$7
other 35% −$8
tech 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
sports 5% −$2
world 5% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,015) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage84d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 12 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th Jun 11 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 11 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,065 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $828 −$1 -0%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish par May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $778 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $867 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $889 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $846 −$2 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 20 $833 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $880 −$1 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e May 19 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Mar 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $999 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL No 100¢ $1,092 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $1,054 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $803 5d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $233 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th SELL No 100¢ $1,020 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $971 6d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,083 6d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $853 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,081 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 7d
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,014 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records