Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe31f…6c7c other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$697 (-26%) realized −$696 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days−$686
14 days−$613
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$28
sports 23% −$536
crypto 12% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 47% 47% -44.7%
≤30d 36 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 47% -33.8%
≤90d 36 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 47% -33.8%
all 36 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 47% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -33.8%
10% -25.2% 33% -40.1%
15% -32.4% 31% -45.9%
20% -39.1% 28% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$64 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$696
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $201 +$41 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $119 +$91 +76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$37 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $10 +$32 +309%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 +$6 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $233 −$233 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $272 −$270 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $246 −$245 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $107 −$105 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$61 +200%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$22 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$28 +31%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$26 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $55 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $80 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $29 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 71¢ $29 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $31 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $272 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $28 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $29 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $11 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $21 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $3 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $3 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $76 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $23 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $34 5d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.98 · official $278.98 (match) · 98 history records