Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe321…12dd other 55 markets active 4d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$10
politics 31% −$4
other 19% −$1
crypto 5% +$2
world 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 50 -6.1% -15.1% 76% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -23.2% 4% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage226d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in February? Mar 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $2,288 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $2,256 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Feb 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Feb 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Feb 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Feb 15 $40 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $2,249 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jan 03 $1 $0 +45%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $2,260 −$2 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $2,101 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $160 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Kings Jan 02 $1 $0 +28%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $2,103 −$2 -0%
Heat vs. Pistons Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $27 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $159 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 19 $179 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $12 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 60d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 60d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 60d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 82d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 82d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 99d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 99d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 99d
Will Solana reach $150 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 110d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 110d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 100¢ $20 110d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 110d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 110d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 110d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 122d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $50 122d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $23 122d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 122d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.33 · official $161.33 (match) · 341 history records