Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe32a…19e2 other 36 markets active 14h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$179 (-32%) realized −$177 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$102
sports 18% −$21
crypto 12% −$52
politics 8% +$4
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 26% -30.5%
≤30d 23 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 26% -30.5%
≤90d 23 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 26% -30.5%
all 30 -12.3% -20.7% 33% 30% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 30% -41.5%
10% -28.3% 27% -47.1%
15% -35.2% 23% -52.2%
20% -41.6% 17% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage524d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $98 −$97 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit LA by Sunday? Jan 14 $41 +$6 +14%
Heat vs. Clippers Jan 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jan 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Trump tweet on inauguration day? Jan 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 10 $57 −$56 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $5 35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 35h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.72 · official $37.72 (match) · 54 history records