Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe32a…ea41 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$8
sports 7% −$18
world 5% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -6.3% -15.2% 33% 8% -10.1%
all 49 -6.3% -15.2% 33% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 8% -10.1%
10% -23.3% 4% -18.7%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage86d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $116 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $511 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $126 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $11 +$3 +23%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $127 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $127 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $19 +$2 +12%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $18 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $17 +$1 +7%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $16 +$1 +5%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $15 +$1 +6%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $11 $0 +3%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Jazz vs. Suns Apr 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $8 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $115 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $115 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 26d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 26d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 31d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.40 · official $9.40 (match) · 157 history records