Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe32a…cd33 sports 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,711 (-6%) realized −$1,734 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%142W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$330
14 days−$192
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.6% -31.8% 36% 36% -31.8%
≤30d 134 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 56% -7.1%
≤90d 255 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 53% -17.0%
all 260 -4.2% -13.4% 55% 53% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 53% -15.7%
10% -21.7% 50% -23.8%
15% -29.2% 46% -31.2%
20% -36.2% 35% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$89 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$1,734
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses142 / 118
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions3
Markets (closed)260 / 263
History coverage98d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 74¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $6 $22 +$16 (+259%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $318 −$20 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $52 −$45 -87%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $14 −$13 -93%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $71 +$79 +112%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $97 −$86 -89%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $63 +$37 +60%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $48 +$52 +109%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $91 +$69 +76%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $103 +$67 +65%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $182 −$166 -91%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $166 −$163 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$70 +101%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $59 +$43 +73%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $175 +$61 +35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $29 −$15 -51%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $67 −$67 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $171 −$169 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $111 −$110 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $97 +$47 +49%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $432 −$67 -15%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $169 +$50 +30%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $79 −$78 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $342 −$85 -25%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $200 −$61 -31%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $91 −$59 -65%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $76 −$76 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $76 +$74 +97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $72 +$48 +67%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $62 +$68 +108%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 08 $124 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $175 +$42 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $75 +$75 +101%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $150 −$148 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $42 +$52 +124%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $57 +$43 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $68 −$18 -26%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $86 +$38 +44%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$22 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $65 −$65 -100%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$34 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $63 +$62 +98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $145 +$81 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $60 +$36 +61%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $110 +$100 +92%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $142 −$21 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $91 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $289 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 90¢ $4 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 2h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 93¢ $150 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $150 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 94¢ $54 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 94¢ $16 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 94¢ $46 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 10¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 5¢ $11 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 26¢ $9 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 26¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 47¢ $48 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 60¢ $61 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $84 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $24 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $47 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $63 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 7h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 60¢ $24 27h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 56¢ $11 27h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 56¢ $23 27h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY NRG Academy 60¢ $79 27h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 56¢ $57 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.90 · official $119.90 (match) · 875 history records