Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

E3 0xe32a…1f66 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! loses its big bets

Total PnL +$146 (+1%) realized +$160 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%16W / 10L

Whale WR14%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$501per market

Trades / day34.6pace

Fees−$192est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+5.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+16.8%	+5.7%	62%	62%	-9.1%
≤30d	26	+16.8%	+5.7%	62%	62%	-9.1%
≤90d	26	+16.8%	+5.7%	62%	62%	-9.1%
all	26	+16.8%	+5.7%	62%	62%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.6 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+5.7%	62%	-9.1%
10%	-4.5%	62%	-17.8%
15% ← realistic here	-13.7%	62%	-25.7%
20%	-22.1%	62%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 14% (≥$629) wins small, loses big bets

Persistence

early +25% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$420 vs −$666 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$301

Realized+$160

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses16 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)14%

Est. fees paid−$192

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage5d

Avg bet$501

Trades / day34.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Team Falcons	56¢	54¢	$315	$301	−$14 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$630	−$626	-99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$649	−$649	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$320	+$190	+59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	Jun 20	$587	+$1,251	+213%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$479	+$536	+112%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$315	+$208	+66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$622	−$622	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$629	−$629	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$317	+$178	+56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$564	−$564	-100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$629	−$629	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$614	+$1,836	+299%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$629	−$629	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$317	+$173	+55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 19	$317	+$178	+56%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$320	+$174	+54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$317	+$178	+56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$317	+$178	+56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner	Jun 18	$253	+$156	+62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$254	+$227	+89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$455	−$455	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$910	−$910	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 16	$942	−$942	-100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$912	+$666	+73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$463	+$267	+58%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$451	+$322	+71%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	56¢	$319	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	1¢	$5	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	2¢	$10	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	4¢	$20	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	8¢	$7	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	8¢	$33	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	16¢	$79	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	32¢	$32	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	32¢	$126	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	61¢	$318	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	100¢	$509	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	1¢	$5	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	2¢	$10	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	4¢	$11	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	4¢	$1	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	4¢	$8	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$4	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$15	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$1	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$8	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$12	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	8¢	$0	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	16¢	$79	4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$3	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	32¢	$14	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.94 · official $300.94 (match) · 200 history records